ADA Price Prediction: A Return to $0.50 Hinged on the Merge

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, cardano (ADA) partially reversed Tuesday’s 7.39% sell-off with a 3.66% gain.
• Market sentiment towards the Ethereum (ETH) Merge, the Vasil hard fork, and reaction to US economic indicators provided support.
• However, technical indicators are bearish, with ADA sitting below the 100-day EMA, bringing $0.45 into play.

On Wednesday, ADA rose by 3.66%. Partially reversing a 7.39% slide from Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.481. The Wednesday gain ended a three-day losing streak.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.462. Avoiding the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.447, ADA rose to an early afternoon high of $0.487. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.495, ADA slipped back to end the day at $0.481.

A bullish session, driven by market sentiment toward the Ethereum (ETH) Merge and the Vasil hard fork, provided support. From the US, softer wholesale inflation numbers for August eased the bets of a percentage point Fed rate hike, delivering further crypto market support.

For the day ahead, US economic indicators will influence, with jobless claims, retail sales, and Philly Fed Manufacturing numbers due. However, the key driver will likely be the Ethereum Merge. A successful transition to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) protocol should deliver a bullish ADA response.

Input Output HK Hard Fork Updates Show Progress

As of September 14, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Nineteen exchanges are hard fork ready, up from 18 as of September 13.
• Twenty-five exchanges are in progress, unchanged from September 13, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.
• Twenty-five exchanges have yet to start the upgrade process.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Six exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, Upbit, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including ChangellyPro, Coinbase, HitBTC, and XT.com.
• However, one exchange has yet to start the upgrade process: ZB.com.

Investors will be looking for Coinbase and Kraken to complete the upgrade process to deliver ADA price support.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 14, the status of the top Dapps by TVL was as follows:

The next update will be available at 1600 UTC.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 1.87% to $0.472. A bearish start to the day saw ADA fall from a high of $0.481 to an early low of $0.469.

ADA Technical Indicators

ADA needs to move through the $0.477 pivot to target the Wednesday high of $0.487 and the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.491. Input Output HK Vasil hard fork updates later in the day will provide direction. Investors continue to await news of Coinbase and Kraken completing the upgrade process.

However, the Ethereum (ETH) Merge would need to progress seamlessly to support a bullish ADA session. In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.502. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.527.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.466 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.452. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.427.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 100-day, currently at $0.485. Following this week’s bearish cross, the 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

Failure to move through the 100-day EMA ($0.485) and the 200-day EMA ($0.486) would leave S1 ($0.466) in play. However, an ADA move through the EMAs would give the bulls a run at R1 ($0.491) and $0.500.