ADA Price Prediction: A Return to $0.50 in the Hands of Powell

Key Insights:

• It was a bullish Wednesday session, with Cardano (ADA) gaining 3.68%.
• Network updates took a back seat for another day, with the NASDAQ 100 delivering a broad-based crypto rally.
• Technical indicators are turning bullish, with ADA sitting above the 50-day and the 100-day EMAs to bring $0.50 into play.

On Wednesday, ADA rose by 3.68%. Partially reversing a 7.23% slide from Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.479.

A choppy morning saw ADA slide to an early low of $0.454. However, avoiding the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.425, ADA rallied to a high of $0.482 before easing back. Despite the breakout session, ADA came up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.497.

Following daily losses, the NASDAQ 100 provided ADA and the broader crypto market with much-needed support. Falling US Treasury yields drove demand for riskier assets. The upside came despite hawkish FOMC member chatter.

In recent days, the bullish sentiment towards the Vasil hard fork appears to have subsided. Similar trends have occurred with other coins in the runup to hard forks. However, over the longer term, the network enhancements remain ADA positive.

Input Output HK Hard Fork Inches Closer as Exchanges Upgrade

Overnight, there were no updates from Input Output HK to influence ADA price action. However, progress towards the September 22 hard fork continues.

As of September 7, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• 13 exchanges are hard fork ready, up from 11 as of September 6:
• Hard fork ready exchanges include AscendEX (Bitmax), Bitkub, Bitmart, Bitrue, BKEX, Btc Turk, Dex-Trade, Gate.io, Litebit.eu, MEXC, NDAX, OKex, and Whitebit.
• Twenty-six exchanges are in progress, up by one from the previous day, with Binance ‘nearly there’ and Coinbase and Kraken reporting upgrades in progress.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Four exchanges are hard fork ready: Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including Binance, Coinbase, HitBTC, and Upbit.
• However, four exchanges have yet to start the upgrade process: AAX, ChangellyPro, XT.com, and ZB.com.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

Overnight, PoolTool showed that 83% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3. While upgrade momentum has stalled, nodes achieved the 75% threshold.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.42% to $0.477. A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.481 before falling to a low of $0.475.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.472 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.489. While Vasil hard fork updates remain positive, the remaining eight most liquid ADA exchanges need to upgrade to deliver ADA price support.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.500. Dovish Fed Chair Powell chatter would support a return to $0.500. US economic indicators will also need to be crypto-friendly, with US jobless claims due later today. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.528.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.461 into play. However, barring another extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.450 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.444. A hawkish Fed Chair and a fall in jobless claims would pressure ADA. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.412.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 50-day and the100-day EMAs, currently at $0.474. The 50-day EMA converged on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, signaling an imminent move.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would bring the 200-day EMA ($0.482) and the Major Resistance Levels into play. However, an ADA fall through the 50-day and 100-day EMAs would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.461).