ADA Price Prediction: Bears Eye Sub-$0.420 on iPhone Production News

Key Insights:

• On Tuesday, cardano (ADA) fell by 1.34% to end the session at $0.441.
• US economic indicators refueled Fed fear, driven by a spike in consumer confidence that sent riskier assets into the red.
• The technical indicators are bearish. With ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.40 remains in play.

On Tuesday, ADA fell by 1.34%. Reversing a 0.22% gain from Monday, ADA ended the day at $0.441.

A bullish morning saw ADA rally to a mid-morning high of $0.463. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.453 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.459.

However, falling short of $0.465, ADA slid to a late afternoon low of $0.437. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.439, ADA ended the day at $0.441.

US economic indicators overshadowed the likely positive impact of the Vasil hard fork on migration to the Cardano ecosystem.

ADA and the Crypto Market Still Intertwined with Stats and the Fed

After the post-Fed decoupling last Thursday, the US equity market influence returned on Tuesday. US economic indicators signaled further support for the Fed’s aggressive policy goals to bring inflation to target.

In September, the CB Consumer Confidence Index jumped from 103.6 to 108.0. Labor market conditions drove consumer sentiment northwards, offsetting concerns over inflation, mortgage rates, and Fed’s likely impact on the US economy.

Significantly, the pickup in confidence supports the Fed’s plans to lift rates on a steeper rate curve to tackle inflation. However, the survey cut-off was September 20, before the Fed rate hike and FOMC projections.

While US economic indicators weighed, network updates remain ADA positive. Investors expect improved network performance to drive Cardano adoption and a sizeable increase in project migration to the Cardano ecosystem.

Overnight, Input Output HK announced the availability of new post-Vasil hard fork capabilities, which were ADA positive.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 2.72% to $0.429. A bearish morning saw ADA slide from an early high of $0.443 to a low of $0.425.

ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.431. News of Apple Inc (AAPL) cutting production of the new iPhone weighed on riskier assets.

Technical Indicators

A move through S1 and the $0.447 pivot would give the bulls a run at the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.457 and the Tuesday high of $0.463. A marked shift in risk sentiment would be needed to support a return to $0.460.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.473 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.499.

Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would leave the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.421 in play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.420. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.395.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.453. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA ($0.453) would give the bulls a run at R1 ($0.457) and the 100-day EMA ($0.461). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.469. However, following Tuesday’s fall through the 50-day EMA, ADA would likely test S2 ($0.421) before any recovery.