ADA Price Prediction: Bulls Eye $0.50 on Vasil Hard Fork Updates

Key Insights:

• Cardano (ADA) rallied by 4.90% on Monday. Reversing a 4.67% slide from Sunday, ADA ended the day at $0.450.
• Vasil hard fork stats delivered support through the early part of the session, with a pickup in crypto appetite driving ADA through the US session.
• Technical indicators remain bearish. ADA sits at the 50-day EMA, leaving sub-$0.40 in play.

On Monday, ADA rallied by 4.90%. Reversing a 4.67% slide from Sunday, ADA ended the day at $0.450.

A bearish end to the Sunday session spilled over to the Monday session, leading ADA to a new August low of $0.424. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.420, ADA rallied to a late high of $0.453. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.446 to end the day at $0.450.

Improved market sentiment and Vasil hard fork statistics provided ADA support. With no economic indicators or FOMC member speeches to consider, investors jumped in with the hope of a September breakout in response to the upcoming Vasil hard fork.

The Monday rally came despite the NASDAQ 100 seeing red, with the broader crypto market decoupling from the US equity markets on Monday.

Updates Reflect Increased Activity in Support of a September Fork

Recently, Vasil hard fork stats and one metric in particular have been ADA price positive. Following a call from Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson to SPO nodes to upgrade to v1.35.3, the increased conversion rate over the last week improved sentiment towards the frequently delayed hard fork.

Last Tuesday the conversion rate had stood at just 33%. 75% of Cardano SPO nodes had to convert to support the Vasil hard fork. Overnight, PoolTool showed that 75% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3.

Investor focus will now shift to the largest crypto exchanges by ADA trading volumes. A Binance exchange upgrade to support the new version would point to a September hard fork.

On Friday, Hoskinson stated that three to five of the largest exchanges need to upgrade to set a hard fork date.

However, ADA downside risks do remain. Hoskinson also pointed out that the hard fork would take place sometime in September barring an unexpected discovery or a substantial slowdown somewhere.

According to Input Output HK,

“For this upgrade to be triggered, the IOG & CardanoStiftungs teams are tracking three critical mass indicators the community will need to reach before the #Vasil upgrade will be triggered.”

After hitting the 75% landmark overnight, two mass indicators remain, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ada liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

Overnight, Input Output HK also shared that Binance, KuCoin, Kraken, Crypto.com, Gate.io, and HitBTC are in progress to upgrade.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 1.11% to $0.455.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.446 before striking a high of $0.456.

Technical Indicators

ADA will need to avoid the $0.442 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.461. ADA would need support from the broader market to break out from the morning high of $0.456.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.471 and resistance at $0.475. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.500. Updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators will influence ADA price action.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.432 into play. However, barring another extended sell-off, ADA would likely steer clear of the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.413.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.384. Later today, US economic indicators and FOMC member chatter will also draw attention. Positive stats and hawkish chatter could deliver a reversal.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat at the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.456. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, both price negatives.

A further pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 100-day EMA would bring the Major Support Levels into play. However, a breakout from the 50-day EMA would bring R1 ($0.461) into view.