ASX 200 Forecast: Weak Breadth and Bearish Momentum Point Toward 8,255 Support

ASX 200 Heat Map: Brambles Shock Adds to Miner-Led Pressure

Another red day for the ASX 200 Index. Brambles is down about 20% after the company cut FY26 underlying profit growth guidance. On the other end of the spectrum Lynas is up around 5.46%, helped by broader rare-earths/critical minerals theme.

The Index is down over 1% with only 32% of stocks above their 20-day MA. The only relief is that a crossover above 30% may be a signal that the decline may be nearing an end.

The ASX 200 Heat Map Shows Broad Selling Across Miners and Industrials, with Brambles plunging 20%

ASX 200 sector heat map showing broad red across large cap miners, gold stocks, and industrial names, with Brambles down sharply near 20%, Lynas up around 5.5%, and energy stocks such as Woodside and Santos higher.

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Weekly Chart Loses Momentum Below Supertrend Resistance

The ASX 200 remains underneath both the short and long term Supertrends. This will keep me bearish with a negative bias. The current weekly candle has long wicks on both ends and it is only Monday, so we still have several days to see if the Index will actually reverse. If not, the next level of support for the Index when looking at the weekly timeframe is around 8,255.

ASX 200 Slips Toward 8,550 as Weekly Momentum Fades Below The Short and Long Supertrends

Weekly ASX 200 chart showing price trading near 8,555, below short Supertrend resistance around 8,878 and long Supertrend resistance near 9,229, with support near 8,491 and 8,255.

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Daily Chart Slips Below 8,550 as Momentum Fades

The ASX 200 daily chart is still soft. Price is stuck below the 21-EMA, which has me leaning bearish. The recent bounce failed quickly and the index is drifting back toward 8,500. RSI isn’t oversold yet, so supply is still much available. The next level of support is at the 8,255 level.

ASX 200 Weakens Below The 21-EMA, With Supply Pressing the 8,500 Support Zone

Australia’s 10-Year Yield Pullback Eases Pressure on ASX 200

Australia’s 10-year yield pulled back from the 5.15% zone. This pullback helps to ease off the downside pressures on the ASX 200. However, yields are still holding above the 50-SMA and the 500-SMA. RSI near 60 indicates that the momentum is still constructive, while the Z-Score SMA says yields are a bit stretched but not washed out. It seems to me that yields are prepping for a breakout above the 5.175% level.

Australia’s 10-Year Bond Yield Cools From Recent Highs But Remains Above Trend

0.025 Renko chart of Australia’s 10-year government bond yield showing a pullback near 5.10%, with price above the 50-SMA and 500-SMA, RSI near 58 and the Z-Score SMA elevated around 1.67%.

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Rebound Tests 8,600 Resistance

The ASX 200 Index made a lower low on the Renko around 8,490 and quickly rebounded. The Index remains below the 50-SMA and 500 SMA and the Supertrend has also flipped negative. More so the RSI is below 50. One stands out is that the Z-Score SMA is trending higher off the lows with the ASX 200 testing 8,600. There’s alot of work that needs to be done before there’s a bullish structure on the Renko so expectations are for a move lower towards the 8,255 price level.

ASX 200-Brick Renko Rebounds from 8,500 But Remains Below MAs

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bearish

Bias: Negative

Support Levels: 8,255

Resistance Levels: 8,880, 9,230

Medium Term Path: The ASX 200 Index continues to look bearish in the medium term. This is across multiple timeframes as well as the Renko chart. It doesn’t even look like a buy the dip scenario. We need downside capitulation. It may be coming with the market breadth. Once that occurs we would then need the indicators to confirm the change in trend.