The S&P/ASX 200 Index began the week on a poor note with the market being severely hit by the early selling pressure. It dropped drastically in the morning and then recovered some of its lost ground. The index recovered some of the losses but it still went down at the end of the day. The poor sentiments across global equities were stressing the case following a bad Wall Street day. The US equities sell-off created a negative mood and weighed on the investor mood in the local market.
The selling pressure was broad, but the growth and rate-sensitive areas had the highest selling pressure. S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index was the biggest loser with tech stocks being sold off in high numbers. There was also pressure on the financial sectors. The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index headed lower as investors became more wary. The consumer discretionary and healthcare stocks also exhibit weak risk appetite throughout the market.
Defense sectors fared a little better but could not find a foothold. Industrials and communication services fell because investors shunned cyclical exposure. Stocks of real estate were somewhat resilient but still ended in negative territory. Overall, the market mood was rather wary since traders cut their exposure following the volatility of the recent past.
Despite the weak performance of ASX 200, there were sectors that performed strongly on the positive side. Energy stocks were the biggest gainers. The ASX 200 Energy Index advanced as oil prices stayed at a high. The Energy Index is likely to trade higher due to the strong bullish price action as seen in the chart below.
This strength shows that there is still anxiety about supply in the world and the increase in energy prices. As a protection against inflation and geopolitical risks, investors shifted to energy.
Buying interests were also in gold and mining stocks. The All Ordinaries Gold Index has surged since there was a resurgence in safe-haven demand. The same sentiment shift was supported by a rise in materials stocks. The chart below confirms that the Materials Index has pushed within the ascending broadening wedge pattern by closing above 21,700. This strong close indicates volatility in the materials sector.
On the other hand, utilities and consumer staples gained a small margin in the market as investors sought defensive positions amid market uncertainty.
The chart below shows that the ASX 200 is consolidating above the 8,400 level. A confirmed break below this level will trigger a strong drop to 7,800. However, a recovery above 9,000 is required to negate the bearish outlook. The index has been consolidating around this key level for the past 6 days and is looking for the next direction.
The 4-hour chart also shows that the index is consolidating above 8,400 after breaking below the ascending channel pattern, which indicates weakness.
ASX 200 is currently under pressure as global weaknesses persistently take a toll on sentiment. The early selling shows that investors are still cautious and quick to reduce risk. Growth sectors are driving downside and reflecting investor concerns about interest rates and the economic outlook. Nevertheless, constant buying in energy and gold indicates that the capital is not leaving the market but moving to less risky sectors.
The market is currently at a major decision point. Holding above support can stabilise sentiment in the short term. However, a break below 8,400 will cause increased selling in industries. Meanwhile, strength of commodity and defensive stocks can be used to curb the downside. The second step will be based on the global indicators and the restoration of confidence in risk assets.
Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.