Natural gas tests new highs as traders bet that hotter weather will boost demand for natural gas in the near term.
From the technical point of view, natural gas moved above the resistance level at $3.00 – $3.05 and is trying to settle above $3.10. In case natural gas settles above $3.10, it will head towards the resistance level at $3.20 – $3.25.
On the support side, a move below the 50 MA at $2.96 will open the way to the test of the support, which is located in the $2.75 – $2.80 range.
WTI oil settled near the $103.50 level as traders switched to July 2026 contract. Traders also focused on the situation in the Middle East.
President Trump has recently called off an attack in Iran to provide more time for negotiations. He said that the U.S. will resume strikes in case negotiations fail.
The Strait of Hormuz remains de-facto closed, and traders worry that it could remain closed for months in case the war restarts. It should be noted that some vessels manage to get through the Strait, but the number of these vessels is minimal compared to pre-war levels.
Meanwhile, the situation in physical oil markets continues to get worse. At this point, the market is not ready to “sell the rumor” and does not react to the fact that U.S. – Iran negotiations continue. The market wants to see tangible evidence which would indicate that the Strait of Hormuz will be unblocked in the near term.
WTI oil has recently made an attempt to settle below the support level at $102.00 – $102.50. In case WTI oil manages to settle below the $102.00 level, it will move towards the next support, which is located in the $97.00 – $97.50 range.
On the upside, a move above the $105.00 level will push WTI oil towards the resistance at $107.50 – $108.00. In case WTI oil climbs above the $108.00 level, it will head towards the psychologically important $110.00 level.
Brent oil continues to move higher as traders worry that U.S. will restart the military operation against Iran. The U.S. wants Iran to finish its nuclear program, while Iran plans to maintain its nuclear ambitions.
Iran’s nuclear program was the key driver that triggered the military operation in the Middle East. In case Iran is not ready to make concessions, the U.S. and Israel will have no choice and will be forced to restart the operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The nearest resistance level for Brent oil is located in the $111.50 – $112.00 range. In case Brent oil manages to settle above the $112.00 level, it will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the $119.50 – $120.00 range. A move above the $120.00 level will signal that the market is in a state of panic.
On the support side, Brent oil needs to settle back below $107.00 to have a chance to gain downside momentum in the near term. In this case, Brent oil will head towards the support at $103.00 – $103.50.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.