The ASX 200 rebounded strongly as easing geopolitical tensions improved global sentiment, with gains led by mining, banking, and technology stocks and technical signals pointing to further upside if resistance levels break.
The Australian sharemarket rebounded from the support zone and marked one of the strongest sessions in almost a year as investor sentiment returned. The ASX 200 Index ended with healthy gains following a couple of quiet sessions. There was a surge in optimism following Donald Trump’s signalling an end to tensions in the Middle East. This improved global sentiment and encouraged investors to be more aggressive in shares.
The rally was not just limited to Australian market. The US markets also noted a strong recovery as Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite closed higher. Market participants took cues from the possibility of geopolitical resolution. Hopes of a quick resolution reduced fears of prolonged disruption in energy markets. This boosted sentiment on world shares and spilled over to Australia.
The rally was spearheaded by big sectors. BHP Group, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group led the charge. Banks also contributed to the strength, with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in the lead. This combination of strength in materials and financials provided a strong base for the index to turn around.
This is also confirmed by the ASX 200 Materials Index which has surged within the ascending broadening wedge pattern. This surge indicates a possible move to 24,000.
The buying pressure was strong across most sectors. Technology stocks remained strong which led to a strong rebound in the ASX 200 Information Technology Index as shown in the chart below.
This reflected a reappraisal of growth stocks following recent weakness. Investors went back to risky assets on lower macro risk.
On the other hand, demand was strong for mining and gold stocks. The All Ordinaries Gold Index spiked as investors bought back commodity related shares. Meanwhile, ASX 200 Materials Index recorded strong gains.
The chart below shows that the rebound in the ASX 200 on Wednesday broke the 20-day SMA but did not close above 8,700. However, the strong daily candle suggests further market strength over the next few sessions.
The immediate resistance remains at the 200-day SMA at 8,775, whereby a break above this level will trigger strong move to the 9,000 level. The RSI also closes above the mid-level, which indicates a possible turnaround.
On the other hand, the hourly chart shows a constructive rebound in the index by forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern. The immediate resistance remains at 8,750 on the hourly chart. This resistance is defined by the 200 SMA. A break above this level will trigger further upside towards the 9,000 level.
The ASX 200 has picked up momentum as global uncertainties ease and confidence returns to markets. The strong gains in mining, banking and technology sectors resulted in a strong rally in ASX 200.
However situation remains sensitive to geopolitical risks and the energy market. While further improvements in sentiment could lead to further growth, a shift back towards pessimism could lead to renewed volatility.
The strong surge in the ASX 200 from the key support of 8,400 indicates that market is attempting to form a bottom here. A break above 9,000 will confirm that the bottom is in.
Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.