AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Continues to See a Lot of Range Trading

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar initially tried to rally, but then plunged during trading on Friday as the jobs number came out much hotter than anticipated. We are currently testing the 50 day EMA, but more importantly, we’re testing the bottom of the same range we have been in. It is not until we break down below the 200 day EMA that you can make an argument for shorting right now. You’d be shorting directly into support. With that being the case, I think you have a scenario where buyers could come in and pick this up and try to send it back to the 0.6650 level.

The 0.6650 level being the magnet for price that it is, I think does make a nice short-term target. If we can break above there, then we could go looking to the 0.6725 level, which is the top of the overall range. In general, I think the Australian dollar continues to focus on commodities and I think it continues to focus on a lot of noise coming out of the Federal Reserve and whether or not they are going to cut rates.

I don’t think they will, at least not in the near term. So that is your downward pressure, but your upward pressure might be the hope burns eternal. It could also be the inflationary upward pressure in commodities such as gold and aluminum, copper, et cetera. So, it is a bit of a push-pull, and it does make sense that we are sideways here. I think that more likely than not will remain the case.

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