AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Continues to See Consolidation

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar initially fell a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we have broken down below the 50 day EMA. All things being equal, this is a market that is in the middle of a larger consolidation area near the 0.6650 level on the top and the 0.6450 level on the bottom.

In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of back and forth. I think it continues to see a lot of chop as we are basically in the middle of this overall range. I think we’re basically at fair value. If we were to break out of this 200 point range, then it would obviously cause a major shift in attitude.

And at this point in time, a 200 point move makes a certain amount of sense. But that’s only if we get some type of shift in the fundamentals. Right now, it doesn’t look like the fundamentals are changing much, and we are essentially just hanging around in this region. I have no interest in trying to get too cute with this.

I will be a seller at the top of the range and a buyer at the bottom of the range. Until then, I just sit here and observe more than anything else. This market continues to be one that I am simply waiting on to make up its mind. However, I can fade a move to the top or bottom of the range, on signs of exhaustion. Until we get a bigger move, it is like we are essentially “stuck.”

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