AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Test a Familiar Area

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

We initially did try to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but gave up gains as the Aussie dollar dropped back down to the familiar 0.6650 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noise. And with that being said, we’ll have to sort out whether or not the market is going to find buyers here or are if we going to break back down below. In general, this is a situation where the moving averages could come into the picture near the 0.6550 level as the 50-day EMA is starting to try to break above the 200-day EMA kicking off the so-called Golden Cross. It isn’t necessarily my favorite indicator, but certain people will be paying attention to it.

The 0.6725 level above is significant resistance, so if we could break that, then I think we test the triangle that goes back several months, really several years, and at this point in time, I think we are getting kind of close to having to determine whether or not it’s actually going to be valid.

You also have to keep in mind that the Aussie dollar is highly influenced by commodities and Asia. So there’s a lot of external noise in this pair. Really at the end of the day, it’s a risk on, risk off type of situation. If it becomes a risk off the market, the US dollar of course will strengthen, and we could drop. So with all of that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where the market continues to be noisy in this area and therefore we have to determine whether or not we get any type of momentum to really follow. I think it’s probably a bit suspect at the moment.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.