AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Trade in a Range

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar rallied just a bit during the early hours on Monday, as we continue to bounce around in the same nonsensical area. The 0.6450 level underneath is a major floor, while the 0.6650 level is a major ceiling. Now, having said that, this is a market that just doesn’t have anywhere to be. And that does make a certain amount of sense because nobody out there seems overly confident on central bank action and what the Fed will do. Because while we do know the Fed is planning on cutting later this year, the reality is that we don’t know exactly when and that generally has been a major issue.

The 50 day EMA just above offers resistance right along with the 200 day EMA. I have the sneaking suspicion that this year is going to be somewhat range bound in most currency pairs and that is because all central banks are going to be cutting. So, it’s a race to the bottom. It’s more junk fiat currencies.

The real money is going to be in gold, and that could provide a little bit of a knock-on effect for the Aussie dollar. We’ll just have to see how that plays out. If we break out of this range, then it’s likely that we will go 200 points in one direction or the other. But until then, I think you’re just fading and taking advantage of exhaustion at both the top and the bottom. Right now, we’re just kind of chopping around, so keep that in mind.

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