AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Early Gains

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 17.08.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but gave back gains as it looks like the 0.65 level offers a bit of resistance. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see downward pressure as it looks like we are going to head toward the 0.64 level. The 0.64 level is an area that’s been important in the past, and it certainly looks like the downward pressure continues against the Aussie. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the global growth situation, and of course that he is in the spotlight at the moment.

Furthermore, you have the Federal Reserve staying very tight with its monetary policy, so that makes the US dollar stronger. All things being equal, this is a scenario where it is very much “fade the rally”, and therefore I think you have to look at it through that prism. It’s not until we break above the 50-Day EMA that I would consider going long in this pair, and even then, I think it would probably come down to a lot of issues when it comes to whether or not we are going to actually put money to work. After all, Australia has recently decided not to raise interest rates while expected to, which suggests that the Australians maybe see something a bit ugly in the future.

All things being equal, I think you need to be cautious at this time of year, due to the fact that so many of the big traders are not at their desks, meaning that liquidity could be a bit of an issue. This is especially true in some of the more exotic pairs, but it does come into play when you talk about even the major pairs at times. Nonetheless, I think you’ve got a situation where we will eventually see some type of impulsive move, but right now it looks like we’ve got basically just a slow grind lower. In general, I think you need to be somewhat cautious with your position sizing, but it’s obvious that the market favors the downside in the US dollar overall.

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