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James Hyerczyk
Australian Dollar AUD/USD

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly better early Monday as traders continue to assess the impact of Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on future Fed policy. Due to the thin holiday trading conditions last week, we could even see a rally today especially if traders think the sell-off may have been overdone. We could also see position-squaring ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday.

At 08:09 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6991, up 0.0011 or +0.15%.

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Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the downside on July 4 with the formation of a closing price reversal top and its subsequent confirmation on Friday. This chart pattern doesn’t mean the trend is changing to down, but it could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction and/or a 50% to 61.8% correction of the last rally.

A trade through .7048 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through .6832.

The minor trend is down. This move supports the downtrending momentum.

The main range is .7206 to .6832. Its retracement zone at .7019 to .7063 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally last week at .7048.

The short-term range is .6832 to .7048. Its retracement zone at .6940 to .6914 is the primary downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6972.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6972 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main 50% level at .7019.

Overtaking .7019 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a further rally into .7048 and a resistance cluster at .7061 to .7063.


Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6972 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term 50% level at .6940, followed by the short-term Fibonacci level at .6915 and an uptrending Gann angle at .6902.

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