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Kenny Fisher
Currency paper

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has posted slight gains in Friday trade. In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.6753, up 0.13% on the day.

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Retail Sales Rebound

There was positive economic news on Friday, as Australian retail sales bounced back in August, with a gain of 0.4%. This followed a decline of 0.1% in July. The reading was shy of the forecast of 0.5%, which capped the Aussie’s gains. The RBA released its semi-annual financial stability review and reminded its readers that the global economic picture remains uncertain and growth will likely be weak. Traders should be prepared for stronger movement from AUD/USD in the North American session, with the U.S. releasing nonfarm payrolls and wage growth. The economy is expected to create 145 thousand jobs, while wage growth is forecast to tick down to 0.3%.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On Thursday, AUD/USD recorded its strongest daily session since September 3, gaining 0.50%. The pair easily punched past resistance at 0.6710. The main trend is up, and AUD/USD is putting strong pressure on resistance at 0.6760. I expect this line to be tested during the day. On the downside, 0.6665 is a major support level.

AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart

USD/CNY

Chinese banks have been closed for a holiday since Monday, which has kept USD/CNY pegged at 7.1476 throughout that time. The banks will remain closed until Tuesday.

Yuan at 3-Week Low after Soft Chinese Data

The dollar started the week with gains, courtesy of weak Chinese manufacturing PMIs for September. The official Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8, pointing to contraction for a fifth straight month. The manufacturing sector has been hard-hit by the ongoing trade war with the United States, which is weighing on the Chinese currency. Currently, USD/CNY is at its highest level since September 6.

USD/CNY Technical Analysis

The main trend has been up since mid-September, and it will be interesting to see if the dollar can resume next week where it left off. If so, the resistance line at 7.1700, which has held firm for a month, could face pressure. On the downside, 7.1100 switched to support last week.

USD/CNY 4-hour Chart

NZD/USD

NZD/USD is listless in Thursday trade. In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.6321, down 0.29% on the day.

NZ Dollar Rebounds, U.S. Jobs Data Looms

After sinking to a 10-year low earlier in the week, the New Zealand dollar has rebounded and is in green territory for a third straight day. The ANZ Commodity Prices Index came in at a flat 0.0% on Thursday, pointing to weakness in the demand for New Zealand exports. Traders should keep an eye on U.S. employment data, which could affect the direction of the pair. The markets are braced for soft numbers, which could weigh on risk currencies like the NZ dollar. The U.S. economy is expected to create 145 thousand jobs, while wage growth is forecast to tick down to 0.3%.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the pair broke above resistance at 0.6280 and has moved further away from this line on Friday. There is a Fibonacci level at 0.6357. Above, we find resistance at 0.6430, which has held since September 12. On the downside, 0.6280 has assumed a support role.

NZD/USD 4-hour Chart
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