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Christopher Lewis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but found enough resistance to turn the market over and break down rather significantly. This significant break down also had seen a bit of a bounce, and at this point it’s likely that we will continue to chop around the 50 day EMA as we have seen during the trading session on Tuesday. The Australian dollar will continue to move back and forth with trade war concerns, which are all over the place depending on the session.

AUD/USD Video 11.12.19

Looking at the longer-term chart, you can see that the 0.67 level underneath has served as a “double bottom.” This is essentially the hard floor the market and could be the beginning of the market turning around. The 0.6750 level has been a “higher low”, showing signs of a potential trend change. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not necessarily a market that can be jumped into right away, at least not with a huge position, but it does look like we are at least trying to turn things around. If we can get a daily close above the 200 day EMA, then the market is starting to show signs of a real longer-term change. If we get some type of good news out of the US/China trade situation, then that might be the catalyst to finally get this thing moving. Until then, the Australian dollar will be at the whim of external forces, and as a result you will need to be very cautious about position size. Eventually though, this thing looks as if it is going to turn around.

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