AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar continues to struggle

The Australian dollar continues to struggle overall, which makes sense considering that we have the US/China issue, and of course a global “risk off” attitude overall. The final nail in the coffin ironically might come from the US GDP figures, which show that although still very positive, America is slower than once thought. If that’s the case, then where does global growth come from? The answer is nowhere.

AUD/USD Video 24.12.18

Australia desperately needs global growth to fuel its commodity driven economy, and beyond that there is a housing bubble that’s starting to pop in Australia as well. All things being equal, I think we will continue to see trouble, and that the idea of taking risk will be shunned through the early part of 2019. Ironically, I’m starting to hear a lot of “but it’s different this time”, which is the biggest red flag I can think of.

Until we get resolution to the US/China trade situation, the Australian dollar will get hammered. We will also continue to see rally sell off and I believe that the 0.7250 level is now going to act more or less as a “ceiling in this market. I think that given enough time, we will not only break below the 0.70 level, perhaps go down to the 0.68 level. When I look at the longer-term charts, you can even start to make the idea of a move to the 0.60 level of possibility based upon a bullish flag, although I think that would require another negative catalyst, but let’s be honest here: those are coming fast and furiously.