AUD/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives up Early Gains

The Australian dollar has found itself somewhat sluggish during the course of the week as we initially tried to reach towards the 0.79 handle but have been rebuked to fall rather hard. This comes down to the 10 year note in America selling off drastically, offering yield in a world that quite frankly does not seem to have much. I know that 1.75% on the 10 year note does not sound that exciting but considering where we have been for the last several years, it suddenly makes the US dollar a lot more attractive. If that is going to be the case, then the Australian dollar is going to get hit just like other currencies.

AUD/USD Video 22.03.21

However, one has to keep in mind that the Aussie dollar is also supported by commodities, including those commodities that people will use to build things and during stimulus related projects. In that sense, the Aussie may be a little bit more insulated than other currencies. However, you should also keep in mind that the February candlestick was a massive shooting star, and that of course is not a good look. This means that if we were to break down below the last couple of weeks, it forms a major sell signal, at least for a couple of handles, if not even longer. Keep in mind that the 0.80 level has been a major resistance barrier as well as support over the last several decades, so the fact that we are struggling at this point is very interesting indeed. If we break down below the 0.76 handle, this pair is probably going to drop 500 pips.

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