AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Runs Into Resistance
AUDUSD Forecast Video for 23.03.23
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar has rallied during early hours on Wednesday as we wait for the FOMC meeting results and of course the interest rate situation afterwards. Ultimately, the 0.68 level is major resistance, which extends all the way down to the 0.67 level. This is a situation where we are more likely than not going to cause some issues, and therefore it’s likely that signs of exhaustion will be jumped on.
The 0.68 level above offers a significant amount of resistance that is now backed up by the 50-Day EMA, so that must be kept in the back of your mind at this point. Even if we do break out above there, the upside is somewhat limited due to the fact that there are plenty of areas of trouble above. That being said, the market will continue to be very noisy, and therefore it’s likely that we see sellers into the market center later. This makes quite a bit of sense considering that the Australian dollar is so highly levered to the global commodity market, which of course is levered to the global growth situation.
As things stand right now, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of back-and-forth and volatile concerns, meaning that the Australian dollar is probably going to suffer at the hands of US dollar strength. This will be especially true due to the fact that the FOMC meeting will more likely than not introduce another rate hike, and of course the statement and press conference will be paid close attention to as well. If Jerome Powell sounds hawkish, the Australian dollar will more likely than not be a major victim as there will be concerns about global recession, which is very toxic for the Aussie.
Furthermore, we have been in a downtrend for a while, so it’ll be interesting to see if this holds up. You could make an argument for a little bit of a rising wedge at the moment, which of course is a bearish candlestick pattern as well. Regardless, I think it’s probably a market that you do not want to be long of, so if you were looking to sell the US dollar against a currency, you may want to do that against another one.
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