The SEC’s court filing in the Ripple case on Thursday, May 8, triggered market reaction the following day. XRP rallied to a six-week high of $2.4273 after the settlement filing. However, Democrat SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw dissented, stating:
“This settlement, alongside the programmatic disassembly of the SEC’s crypto enforcement program, does a tremendous disservice to the investing public and undermines the court’s role in interpreting our securities laws. This is not a settlement I can support.”
Crenshaw added:
“I urge the courts to take a long hard look at the Commission’s attempt to claw back the meritorious claims it previously made, and gut its own enforcement program from the inside out.”
Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan reacted to Crenshaw’s statement:
“Imagine saying this even now after almost 80,000 investors you supposedly purport to protect joined in support of Amici curiae against you.”
In December, the US Senate Banking Committee blocked Crenshaw’s renomination vote, effectively ending any realistic chance of renomination. Crenshaw’s dissent underscores the partisan divide on crypto policy, highlighting the implications of Trump’s election victory, Gary Gensler’s departure, and Paul Atkins’ appointment as SEC Chair. Under a Harris administration, the Ripple case may have followed a different path.
The market now awaits a court ruling on the settlement filing.
US attorney James Filan outlined the procedural steps ahead. Judge Torres is expected to issue an indicative ruling on whether to dissolve the injunction and release escrow funds, allocating $50 million to the SEC and returning the rest to Ripple. If she does, the SEC and Ripple will jointly seek a limited remand from the Second Circuit to pursue the proposed resolution. Upon approval, both parties will file a formal motion requesting relief.
If the injunction is lifted and the funds distributed, the SEC and Ripple will ask the Court of Appeals to dismiss the appeal and cross-appeal, effectively closing the case.
XRP gained 0.70% on Friday, May 9, building on Thursday’s 9.44% rally and closing at $2.3437. The token tracked the broader crypto market, which advanced 0.93%, taking the total crypto market cap to $3.28 trillion.
Short-term drivers include:
Key support lies at $2.10. A breakout above $2.50 may pave the way for a test of $3.00 and challenge the all-time high of $3.5505.
See our full XRP forecast here.
While XRP consolidated, bitcoin (BTC) faced mild profit-taking ahead of crucial US-China trade talks. Investors locked in profits after the US-UK trade deal, with attention now turning to the higher-stakes negotiations with China.
President Trump added uncertainty. CN Wire reported:
“China should open up its market to USA. Trump says tariff on China up to Bessent. Trump says 80% tariff on China seems right.”
The key question is whether China would reciprocate if the US lowers its 145% tariff to 80%. Recent rhetoric suggests a prolonged trade war if punitive tariffs remain.
Despite modest losses, BTC held above $100,000 for the first time since February 1. Institutional money flows delivered price support before the US and China resume trade talks. The US BTC-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to three sessions on May 9. According to Farside Investors, key flows included:
IBIT extended its inflow streak to nineteen sessions, reinforcing BlackRock’s dominance in the crypto-spot ETF space.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas remarked on the importance of the ETF market and sticky institutional money, stating:
“More stable holders = more stable price. ETFs and Saylor have gobbled up ton of btc ‘dumps’ over past 15mo.”
Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of Cryptoquant, remarked on the shifting dynamic to BTC price trends, stating:
“It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory. New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi. Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs since this new influx can outweigh even strong whale sell-offs.”
BTC dipped 0.24% on May 9, partially reversing Thursday’s 6.27% rally to close at $102,852.
Key catalysts ahead include US-China trade negotiations, US CPI data, ETF trends, and developments on the Bitcoin Act.
Potential scenarios:
Senator Cynthia Lummis recently reintroduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US acquire one million BTC over five years with a 20-year hold, potentially tightening supply significantly.
Keep a close eye on the Ripple case resolution, ETF flow dynamics, and key US economic releases. A favorable ruling for Ripple could reignite XRP demand, while broader market sentiment hinges on global macro shifts and regulatory clarity.
Read analysts’ insights on what could drive cryptocurrencies to new highs.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.