AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 20, 2017 Forecast

The AUD/USD is trading higher shortly before the U.S. opening and after the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting minutes. The minutes didn’t reveal anything new so there was little reaction by investors. The RBA expects to see economic growth but it’s not ready to change its policy on interest rates. The central bank doesn’t want to cut rates any further out of fear of igniting the housing market, but it stands ready to take action if the labor market were to turn south.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7635 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could create enough upside momentum to fuel a rally into the March 30, 2017 top at .7679.

The AUD/USD is currently straddling a pair of Fibonacci levels at .7606 and .7589. Holding above these levels will mean the buying is getting stronger. This would turn these levels into support.

If .7589 fails as support, we could see a move into a series of retracement levels at .7553, .7545 and .7539.

Forecast

Based on the current price at .7612, and the earlier price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at .7606.

Holding above .7606 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overcoming the uptrending angle at .7612 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the high at .7635.

The high at .7635 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with potential targets .7668 and .7679.

A failure to hold .7606 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break into .7589 and .7587.

Look for an acceleration to the downside if .7587 fails as support. The next targets are .7553, .7545 and .7539.

Essentially, look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over .7612 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under .7587.