AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 10, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 7, 2015, 03:47 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7371 gaining 26 points after home loans missed expectations as traders reviewed comments by the

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 10, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7371 gaining 26 points after home loans missed expectations as traders reviewed comments by the RBA. Slower-than-expected population growth in Australia is playing havoc with forecasts for the resource-rich economy.

The country’s central bank Friday revised lower its expected path for unemployment, saying the jobless rate is set to remain little changed for the next 18 months, instead of drifting higher as earlier predicted.

It also revised lower its forecasts for GDP growth in 2016. It now sees the economy growing by 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent, compared with a forecast in May of 2.75 per cent to 3.75 per cent.

In a quarterly statement on monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia said that as the economy has slowed after a decade-long mining boom, net immigration has also been slower than forecast, as skilled workers return to countries like New Zealand seeking better opportunities.

Official figures released on Thursday showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly hit 6.3 per cent in July, but the bank said the unemployment rate will peak somewhere below 6.5 per cent because there will be less people entering the workforce due to lower population growth from a lower immigration intake.

The Reserve Bank has delivered a more upbeat assessment of the Australian economy but warned that lower than expected population growth could prove a drag on future prospects.

In its August statement of monetary policy published on Friday, the RBA said indicators of economic conditions have been ‘more positive’ over recent months, jobs data has improved while non-mining business conditions are ‘clearly above average’.

The bank’s language on the potential for future interest rate moves remained unchanged from the May statement which said it would “adjust policy as needed”.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Home Loans (MoM) (Jun)	4.4%	5.0%	-7.3%
AUD	RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 10, 2015

	Event	Previous
JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Jul)		51
JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Jul)		53.5
USD	Labor Market Conditions Index (Jul)		0.8
NZD	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)		0.5%
NZD	Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY)		5%
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor – All (YoY)		1.8%