AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 11, 2015, 05:02 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD dipped 79 points to 0.7333 after the NAB business confidence index fell to its lowest level in months. The

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD dipped 79 points to 0.7333 after the NAB business confidence index fell to its lowest level in months. The Australian dollar plunged almost three-quarters of a US cent after the Chinese central bank said it was going to devalue the yuan amid signs of a deepening slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The Australian share market also pushed deeper into the negative territory on the news.

NAB’s monthly business survey has seen recent “exuberant” readings on confidence pared back in July.

After a 10-point rise in June, the survey’s index fell from 8 points to just 4 points in July. Widespread caution was being driven by mining and construction firms, “suggesting an escalation in Chinese growth concerns could be putting firms on alert”, according to NAB senior economist James Glenn.

“Confidence fell back below the long-run average, although the confidence index remains positive and the trend has held up around average levels,” Mr Glenn said.

Business conditions also dropped back, falling 4 points to 6 index points in July to pare back most of June’s gains but to remain just ahead of the 5 point long-run average.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jul)	1.2%	1.0%	1.8%
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jul)	4	11	8

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.400M
JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)		0.6%	0.5%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		0.8%	0.8%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.1%	-0.7%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)		11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)		6.6%	6.8%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Jul)		1.5K	7.0K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Jun)		5.6%	5.6%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		-0.2%	-0.4%
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)		5.300M	5.363M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories			-4.407M
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jul)		-132.0B	51.8B