AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 13, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 12, 2015, 04:08 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD tumbled 51 points to its lowest level in years as China weighs heavily on the export commodity along with the

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 13, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD tumbled 51 points to its lowest level in years as China weighs heavily on the export commodity along with the devaluation of the yuan. This morning Westpac consumer sentiment printed better than the previous and wage price data met expectations. Traders are waiting Chinese industrial production and fixed asset investments which are expected to miss targets. The Aussie is trading at 0.7253.

In May, credit card balances were worth A$51.3 billion and purchases were at A$23.5 billion. The Westpac index was down 3.2 percent in July to a score of 92.2. China will release July data for industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. Production is expected to add 6.6 percent on year after rising 6.8 percent in June. Retail sales are called steady at 10.6 percent, and FAI is tipped to inch up to 11.5 percent from 11.4 percent in the previous month.

Signs of stronger wage growth may encourage the RBA to adopt a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy, and Governor Glenn Stevens may look to conclude the central bank’s easing cycle in 2015 should the fundamental developments coming out of the $1T economy boost expectations for a stronger recovery.

The Australian dollar reached a new six-year low on Wednesday when it was slammed again by Chinese authorities devaluing its currency against the US dollar for the second time this week.

The dollar had recovered slightly on the back of an unanticipated surge in domestic consumer sentiment on Wednesday morning to reach US73.2¢, before the Beijing lowered the midpoint of its yuan currency by 1.6per cent to 6.3306 per US dollar.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	-0.847M	-1.800M	-2.400M
JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Aug)	7.8%		-3.2%
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		0.8%	0.8%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.1%	-0.7%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)		11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)		6.6%	6.8%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 14, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Core Retail Sales (QoQ)		0.7%	2.9%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.5%	0.3%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)		1.0%	1.0%
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Jul)		-0.6%	0.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.4%	0.4%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Jul)		0.1%	0.4%
CAD	Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jun)		2.1%	0.1%
USD	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)		0.3%	0.3%
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)		93.5	93.1