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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 20, 2015 – Forecast

By
Barry Norman
Published: Aug 19, 2015, 04:16 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD declined by 15 points to trade at 0.7328 while the dollar traded in the green there was a lack of support for

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 20, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD declined by 15 points to trade at 0.7328 while the dollar traded in the green there was a lack of support for commodity currencies as China continued to spook the markets. The currency has steadily fallen from yesterday’s high of US73.85c after the Shanghai share market fell more than 6 per cent on Tuesday on worries than the Chinese government won’t intervene any further to prop up its share market or the economy. The development weighed heavily on base metals prices overnight.

LTG GoldRock director Andrew Barnett said China and the chance that the US Federal Reserve will make its first interest rate increase in nine years are bad news for the Australian dollar.

FXCM chief currency strategist John Kicklighter said Tuesday’s six per cent fall in Chinese shares and Wednesday’s one per cent loss in early trade are weighing on the Australian dollar.

“As Australia’s largest trade partner and one of the most important financial centers in the world, China’s next moves will fall right in the middle of most investors radars,” he said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

-2.300M

-2.000M

-0.847M

 

 

  NZD

 

PPI Input (QoQ) (Q2)

-0.3%

-0.5%

-1.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Adjusted Trade Balance

-0.37T

-0.16T

-0.28T

   

  JPY

 

Exports (YoY) (Jul)

7.6%

5.5%

9.5%

 

 

  JPY

 

Trade Balance (Jul)

-268B

-57B

-69B

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday August 20, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Williams Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)

 

4.3%

4.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)

 

4.4%

4.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Aug)

 

-10

-10

 

 

  RUB

 

Central Bank reserves (USD)

 

 

358.0B

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

272K

274K

 

 

  CAD

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

0.2%

-1.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Existing Home Sales (Jul)

 

5.44M

5.49M

 

 

  USD

 

Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

-0.6%

3.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing

 

7.0

5.7

 

 

  USD

 

Philly Fed Employment (Aug)

 

 

-0.4

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

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