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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 31, 2015 – Forecast

Barry Norman

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 31, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD dipped 3 points but was moving between small gains and losses with low volume as traders in Tasmania seemed to remain in shock after a week of China and US market stress. The pair is holding at 0.7163 well below its August trading range.  Investor sentiment improved after China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher for the first time in six sessions with a 5.4 percent gain on the previous close. That bolstered the outlook for global growth and pushed up currencies linked to commodities such as the kiwi, and weakened safe haven currencies like the yen. The US dollar broadly strengthened after second-quarter gross domestic product was revised higher to an annual 3.7 percent rate, ahead of expectations for 3.2 percent and up from the previous estimate of 2.3 percent.

Today, traders will be eyeing reports on Japanese and German inflation, and UK second-quarter GDP. This weekend, the focus will be comments and speeches from the annual Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers in the US. Investors say they are encouraged that the US remains on solid economic footing, while the recent tumult means that the Federal Reserve has leeway to keep interest rates lower for longer than initially expected. Until recent weeks, many investors were gearing up for an increase in short-term rates at the Fed’s meeting next month.

“The US economy is still shining,” Doug Cote, chief market strategist at Voya Investment Management, said. “There is zero inflation across the globe, so the Fed has cover not to raise rates, but the economy is surging so I’m at 50-50 right now for September,” he added.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (YoY) (Jul)

-0.2%

1.3%

-2.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (MoM) (Jul)

0.6%

2.2%

-3.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Jobs/applications ratio (Jul)

1.21

1.19

1.19

 

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)

0.0%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)

1.6%

1.1%

0.9%

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 31, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

-4.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

1.1%

 

 

  AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

 

 

0.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

0.4%

 

 

  CHF

 

KOF Leading Indicators (Aug)

 

 

99.8

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Aug)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Current Account (Q2)

 

 

-17.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Chicago PMI (Aug)

 

54.5

54.7

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 28 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep

 

 

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