AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 11, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD dipped this morning as Chinese data showed a contraction in the trade balance with exports tumbling. Also Australia home loans came in well under forecast reporting at a meager 0.1% on forecasts of 3.0%. Although data released by China over the weekend was a bit more positive with retail sales and industrial production reporting above expectations while CPI and PPU were under but in range of forecast.

AUD has gained 0.2% vs the USD despite a moderate improvement last week in Australia’s trade deficit, as concerns over growth in the euro area drive broad-based risk aversion. AUD has gained 0.4% over the past five sessions, despite a rate cut from the RBA as Q3 GDP came in as expected (3.1% y/y) and as employment data surprised to the upside.

China’s monthly trade surplus fell to $US19.6 billion ($A18.78 billion) in November, down 38.6 per cent from October, the government says as weak overseas demand weighed on the world’s second-largest economy.

The disappointing figures suggested that drivers of a rebound in the Chinese economy were still weak, analysts said.

But recent data including industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment – a key gauge of infrastructure spending – have all shown improvement, fuelling optimism that the worst was over.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 9-10, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 11 09:30 Spain 

Dec 11 10:10 Greece 

Dec 11 10:15 Austria 

Dec 11 10:30 Belgium 

Dec 11 10:30 UK 

Dec 11 18:00 US 

Dec 12 10:10 Italy  

Dec 12 10:10 Sweden 

Dec 12 10:30 Swiss 

Dec 12 16:30 US 

Dec 13 01:30 Japan 

Dec 13 09:30 Spain 

Dec 13 10:10 Italy  

Dec 13 10:30 UK 

Dec 13 16:00 US 

Dec 13 18:00 US 

Dec 14 11:00 Belgium 

Dec 14 15:30 UK