AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD dipped a few pips to trade at 1.0413 on disappointing eco data, while the strength of the Chinese economy limited

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD dipped a few pips to trade at 1.0413 on disappointing eco data, while the strength of the Chinese economy limited losses. The Aussie fell to a session low on Monday after a weaker-than-anticipated retail sales reading, adding to the chances of an interest rate cut this week. Markets are now factoring a 76 per cent chance of a quarter point easing to 3.0 per cent on Tuesday when the central bank holds its monthly policy meeting although Glenn Stevens has never been one to do what is expected.

The final reading for the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Survey (PMI) rose to 50.5 in November from 49.5 in October, the first time since October 2011 that the survey had crossed the 50-point threshold, the line that divides accelerating growth from slowing growth.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 03

KRW

South Korean Trade Balance

4.47B

3.65B

3.70B

KRW

South Korean HSBC Manufacturing PMI

48.16

47.37

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)

-2.9%

-2.5%

-0.3%

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.0%

0.4%

0.5%

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)

-2.90%

-4.60%

CNY

Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI

55.60

55.50

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

50.50

50.40

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 04	00:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	-2.0%	7.8%
	00:30	AUD	Current Account	-14.8B	-11.8B
	03:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.00%	3.25%
Dec. 05	00:30	AUD	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	0.6%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	125K	158K
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.7%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-0.9%	-0.1%
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.5	54.2
	20:00	NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%
Dec. 07	00:30	AUD	Trade Balance	-2.05B	-1.46B