AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

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Published: Sep 17, 2016, 06:56 UTC

The AUD/USD will open in the new week at 0.7489 weighed down by the strength of the US dollar and lackluster jobs data. The Aussie is down 0.69% for the

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The AUD/USD will open in the new week at 0.7489 weighed down by the strength of the US dollar and lackluster jobs data. The Aussie is down 0.69% for the week and is neutral moving into the new week. The central bank meeting this week will determine the course of this currency. The US dollar surged late on Friday weighing on all of its crosses. The RBA minutes this week will be the highlight for the Aussie.

The Australian dollar fell by almost a quarter of a US cent after the release of the August employment numbers), which showed the number of people with jobs fell 3,900, the first fall since February.

The US dollar surged late on Friday while US economic data has mostly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since late July, decidedly hawkish comments from Yellen and Fed Vice Chair Fischer set off speculation of imminent tightening. This sense has been reinforced by saber-rattling from most other policymakers that have opined since. Investors will look for guidance that reconciles this disparity. Augusts’ stronger-than-expected inflation reading and nonfarm payrolls growth averaging above the 190k cited by Ms Yellen as supportive of a hike certainly help. However, explicitly singling out these developments as formative may be needed to guide market expectations through the fog of conflicting news-flow.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date	Country	Name	Volatility	Previous
9/20/2016	AUD	RBA Meeting’s Minutes	3
9/20/2016	CAD	BoC Governor Poloz	3
9/21/2016	AUD	Mid-Year Economic Outlook	3
9/21/2016	JPY	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	3	-0.1
9/21/2016	JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement	3
9/21/2016	JPY	BoJ Press Conference	3
9/21/2016	USD	FOMC Economic Projections	3
9/21/2016	USD	Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement	3
9/21/2016	USD	Fed Interest Rate Decision	3	0.5
9/21/2016	USD	FOMC Press conference	3
9/21/2016	NZD	RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	3	2
9/22/2016	EUR	ECB President Draghi’s Speech	3
9/23/2016	AUD	RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech	3