AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis July 11, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD tumbled by 12 points on lackluster Chinese trade data to trade at 0.9164. Westpac Consumer Sentiment tumbled this morning also. Australian consumer confidence stayed well below levels recorded at the start of the year, a sign the central bank may need to do more to stoke the rest of the economy as a mining boom cools. A Westpac Banking Corp./Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment slid 0.1% in July from June to 102.1 points, keeping it only marginally above the 100-point level that means optimists outnumber pessimists. The drop occurred even after hefty rate cuts and recent sharp declines in the Australian dollar, which has eased pressure on the country’s exporters.

The gauge is almost 8% below a recent peak in March, a time when it seemed a string of rate cuts since late 2011 were working to spur non-mining parts of the economy. Since then, data on retail sales, housing and other sectors have become patchier, suggesting the central bank may decide to take the benchmark cash-rate target below its current record low 2.75% setting. China’s trade performance for June showed drops in both exports and imports, according to reported customs data out Wednesday, disappointing for a second month in a row after May’s results missed estimates by a wide margin. China’s exports last month fell 3.1% from a year earlier, swinging from May’s slim 1% gain, and coming in well below a forecast 4% rise from a Reuters survey of economists

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 10, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Jul 11 09:10 Italy

Jul 11 14:30 UK

Jul 11 15:00 US

Jul 11 17:00 US

Jul 12 10:30 Belgium