AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – June 15, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD eased 5 points to trade at 0.7750 matching the climb in the US dollar in the morning session. There was no economic data from Australia  this morning as the currency more or less floated. The Australian dollar is slightly lower after the US dollar strengthened in overnight trade following the release of better than expected US economic data.

BK Asset Management FX Strategy managing director Kathy Lien said the US dollar traded higher overnight against all the major currencies, including the local unit, after the release of positive US retail sales figures, which rose a stronger than predicted 1.2 per cent in May.

Ms. Lien said the Australian dollar had been supported by positive local jobs figures out Thursday, which showed a surprise drop in the unemployment rate to 6.0 per cent in May.

But she said the impact of the data was offset by comments earlier in the week by Reserve Bank head Glenn Stevens, indicating he was open to further interest rate cuts.

Surprisingly strong jobs numbers have bolstered the Australian dollar, which hit a seven-month high against its kiwi counterpart.

Positive Chinese retail and industrial figures released later in the session had little impact on the Aussie, Ms. Lawson added. “The Chinese figures have come and gone with barely a flutter of the market’s eyelids,” she said.

“Typically we see the Aussie respond to negative Chinese data but appears to go nowhere on positive Chinese data.”

Strong US retail figures, due Thursday night Australian time, could push the US dollar higher and subsequently see the value of the Aussie fall.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, June 15, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 15 00:00 UK New 30 year I/L syndicated Gilt auction

Jun 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 17 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

Jun 18 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligations

Jun 18 11:10 France Auctions BTANs

Jun 18 12:10 France Auctions OATi

Jun 18 17:00 US Details 2-year FRNs

Jun 18 17:00 US Announces details of 2/5/7 year notes

Jun 18 18:00 US Auctions 30-year TIPs sale on 24 Jun