AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis June 18, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD took a fall this morning after dovish comments from the RBA minutes release. The Aussie gave up 45 points to trade at 0.9355. The Aussie dropped 0.4 percent to 93.66 U.S. cents as of 11:12 a.m. in Tokyo. It rose to 94.38 on June 12, approaching this year’s high of 94.61 The AUD dropped after the Reserve Bank reiterated it expects to keep its benchmark at a record low and a report that investment into China unexpectedly declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced after falling yesterday to match the lowest close this month before Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day gathering.

Australian policy makers expressed concern that low interest rates may not offset a drop in mining investment as currency strength weighs on the economy. Australia’s central bank said it’s hard to gauge how much low interest rates will offset a drop in mining investment and tighter fiscal policy, adding that the currency was providing less assistance to rebalancing growth.

“The minutes read a little bit more dovish to me in the sense that they are a little more uncertain about the outlook,” said Jonathan Cavanagh, Singapore-based currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. “It’s taken by the market as more of a dovish signal from the RBA because on balance, it still means that if there was to be another interest rate move in the next six months, it’s more likely to be a cut rather than a hike.” As reported by Bloomberg.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 17, 2014 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Country 

Jun 18 08:30 Spain

Jun 18 09:03 Sweden

Jun 18 09:30 Germany

Jun 18 09:30 Portugal

Jun 19 08:50 France

Jun 19 09:30 Ireland

Jun 19 15:00 US

Jun 19 17:00 US

Jun 20 15:30 Italy