AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 15, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gained 17 points as the US dollar continued to decline trading under the 94 prices. The Aussie is trading at 0.8128 well above its trading range especially after RBA Governor Steven’s said that the currency is overvalued. The NZD jumped to a one-week high versus the U.S. dollar after the statistics bureau said total retail sales volume surged a record 2.7 percent in the March quarter. Australia’s dollar extended its advance against the greenback as the U.S. currency retreated following weaker data over the last month.

The prime reason for the move, which took the Aussie to its highest level since January 21, is that not only did retail sales – which printed 0.0% against an expected rise of 0.2% for April – miss expectations but when auto sales were stripped out, the rise was just 0.1% against 0.5% expected. This is worrying traders about what the Fed might do and when.

That means that the Aussie might rally further. 83 cents is now looking like a reasonable technical target.

While not unilaterally even across the country, Australia’s tourism sector is booming. Earlier today the NAB released its Australian commercial property index for the March quarter. One of the key findings was that confidence among CBD hotel owners was the highest of any sector. As long as the Australian Dollar can remain at-or-below its current level the outlook for the CBD hotel owners, let alone the entire tourism sector, looks like it’ll remain elevated for some time yet.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

 

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 15, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May