AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 11, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is flat in the morning session as traders hope for stimulus from China after inflation data printed well below expectations and the US dollar continued to rally. The pair is trading at 0.7048 near its lowest point this year.  Having plunged by more than a cent on Friday evening on the back of a strong US jobs report for October, the Australian dollar consolidated just above the US 70 cent level overnight, operating in a thin range of .7033 to .7070 throughout the course of European and North American trade.

The solid performance came despite continued chatter of a potential rate hike from the US Fed in December and the OECD downgrading its global growth forecasts for this year and next to 2.9% and 3.3% respectively, down from 3.0% and 3.6% seen previously.

Traders will closely review the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence report, the NAB business survey for October along with housing finance data for September.

China’s inflation eased in October, leaving room for Beijing to stimulate its slowing economy if necessary. Consumer prices rose 1.3 percent over a year earlier, down from September’s 1.6 percent, government data showed Tuesday. That was driven mostly by a 1.9 percent increase in food costs.

Lower inflation leaves room for Beijing to cut interest rates or take other steps to stimulate its cooling economy after growth weakened to a six-year low of 6.9 percent in the latest quarter.

October trade was unexpectedly weak, raising expectations Beijing might face more pressure to shore up growth, though Chinese leaders have said they want to avoid an across-the-board stimulus.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 09 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 16:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 11:00 Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 11:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 11 12:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 12 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 11:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs

Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov