AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis November 3, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gave up 10 points to trade at 0.8822 after the release of PPI data. Annual PPI missed expectations while Q# met

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis November 3, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gave up 10 points to trade at 0.8822 after the release of PPI data. Annual PPI missed expectations while Q# met forecasts. The stronger US dollar also weighed on the Aussie after the Federal Reserve decision to halt its QE program and a shift in its assessment of the US economy to a brighter note. Reserve Bank of Australia policy makers, led by Stevens, repeated in minutes of their meeting this month that the Aussie “remained high by historical standards” and “was offering less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth.”

The Aussie and kiwi have each tumbled at least 1.4 percent since Fed officials said in a statement yesterday an improving labor market is allowing them to end quantitative easing this month. Prior to the Fed’s move, the antipodean currencies were headed for their biggest monthly gains since June as central bank chiefs Glenn Stevens and Graeme Wheeler reiterated their respective exchange rates were too high and hurting growth.

The odds of a first U.S. rate rise since 2006 by October next year climbed to 76 percent, compared with 66 percent on Oct. 28, based on futures prices. Wagers have fallen from 93 percent at the end of September on mixed economic data and comments from Federal Open Market Committee members that a global slowdown and a stronger dollar could derail a recovery.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Household Spending	-5.6%	-4.3%	-4.7%
JPY	Household Spending	1.5%	1.9%	-0.3%
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY)	3.0%	3.0%	3.1%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
AUD	PPI (YoY) (Q3)	1.2%	2.6%	2.3%
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
AUD	Private Sector Credit	0.5%	0.4%	0.4%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	AIG Manufacturing			46.5
AUD	Building Approvals			3.0%
CNY	Non-Manufacturing PMI			54.0
CNY	HSBC Mfg. PMI			50.4
EUR	Spanish Manufacturing			52.6
EUR	Italian Manufacturing		50.7	50.7
EUR	French Manufacturing		47.3	47.3
EUR	German Manufacturing		51.8	51.8
EUR	Manufacturing PMI		50.7	50.7
GBP	Manufacturing PMI			51.6
USD	ISM Employment		55.0	54.6
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI		56.7	56.6