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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 3, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 2, 2015, 05:12 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD added 5 points in the Asian session to trade at 0.7141 after a slew of mixed data. On Sunday Chinese government

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 3, 2015 – Forecast

audusd monday bnsnla
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD added 5 points in the Asian session to trade at 0.7141 after a slew of mixed data. On Sunday Chinese government PMI data was weaker than expected and remained in contraction but Monday morning’s Private manufacturing PMI showed a surprise jump in manufacturing but remained in contraction. Australian building approves printed better than forecast. Overall the Aussie was able to make a small gain.  Having rallied hard on Friday evening on the back of short covering and light trade volumes, the Australian dollar has opened the trading week softer, following further weak Chinese economic data released over the weekend.

The Australian dollar had reversed some gains during the weekend on a slightly softening U.S. dollar when China’s official manufacturing data undershot market expectations.

Traders are now closely watching the Caixin manufacturing index, to be released on Monday.

The Aussie dollar is likely to be supported on Monday against a broadly weaker U.S. dollar, Westpac Currency Strategist Imre Speizer said.

The Australian dollar, a proxy for China plays because of that country’s massive trade exposure to China, touched its session high of $0.7148 immediately after the release of the Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The index edged up to 48.3 in October from 47.2 in September and showed that export orders marked their first rise since June.

But the Aussie soon pared its modest rise, and was last just a few ticks above its level in Friday’s late North American trade at $0.7140. Investors realized that taken overall, the figures still painted a bleak picture of shrinking manufacturing activity below the boom-or-bust threshold of 50 despite Beijing’s raft of stimulus measures.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

AIG Manufacturing Index (Oct)

50.2

 

52.1

 

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals (MoM) (Sep)

2.2%

2.0%

-9.5%

   

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

48.3

47.5

47.2

   

 

audusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Culture Day

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

 

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Oct)

 

58.8

59.9

 

 

  NZD

 

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index

 

 

-3.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.9%

-1.7%

 

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov

Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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