AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 6, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is flat at 0.7147 after speeches from Governor Stevens and Asst. Governor Lowe. Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens says if interest rates were to move shortly, Australians would see a cut rather than increase.

Speaking at a conference in Melbourne, Mr Stevens also defended the RBA’s decision not to compensate consumers for recent mortgage rate hikes, saying the economy doesn’t need the boost and most households could absorb the changes.

Mr Stevens said the conclusion the global community has drawn from the 2008 crisis –  rightly or wrongly – was that there needed to be more regulation.

“A lot more actually, in the financial space,” Mr Stevens told a conference organized by The University of Melbourne on Thursday. However the governor said his view was that much of went wrong in the financial crisis was not because regulations were no good, but because they weren’t that well enforced.

“But the juggernaut tide of international regulation in the financial space is still coming in,” he warned. “We’re seven years after Lehman and this thing is still building.

The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some further softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, in part reflecting increased supply, including from Australia. Australia’s terms of trade are falling.

The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment. While credit costs for some emerging market countries remain higher than a year ago, global financial conditions overall remain very accommodative.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 6, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction