Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD continues to climb adding 17 points as the US dollar eased most of the week. In the Asian session the greenback
The AUD/USD continues to climb adding 17 points as the US dollar eased most of the week. In the Asian session the greenback has gained 20 points but had little effect on the Aussie. Today’s NAB business reports both missed last month but seemed to have little effect on the currency. The AUD has been climbing steadily since Chinese exports and imports showed improvement. The pair is trading at 0.8790. The Aussie gained as the People’s Bank of China sold 20 billion yuan ($3.27 billion) of 14-day repurchase agreements at 3.4 percent. That compares with 3.5 percent in a similar auction on Oct. 9. The monetary authority last cut the rate on Sept. 18 from 3.7 percent. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
Chinese exports rose 15.3 per cent in September from a year earlier, beating the 12 per cent expectation in a Bloomberg survey, while imports rose seven per cent, against expectations of a decline.
Imports of iron ore rose 16.5 per cent and for copper gained 10.5 per cent, suggesting China’s manufacturing base is still hungry for raw materials. The figures gave the Australian dollar a boost on Monday which continued overnight.
Despite the recent fall in the Australian dollar, it remains “higher than most conventional estimates of fundamentals would indicate,” a senior Australian central banker said on Tuesday.
That means the exchange rate is offering less assistance than it would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Guy Debelle told a Citi conference in Sydney.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
JPY |
CGPI (YoY) (Sep) |
3.5% |
3.6% |
3.9% |
|
|
|
JPY |
CGPI (MoM) (Sep) |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
JPY |
M2 Money Stock (YoY) |
3.0% |
2.9% |
3.0% |
|
|
|
AUD |
NAB Bus. Confidence |
5 |
|
7 |
||
|
AUD |
NAB Business Survey |
1 |
|
4 |
|
|
|
NZD |
RBNZ Offshore Holdings |
63.70% |
|
65.00% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
Wednesday, October 15 |
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|
CNY |
CPI (YoY) (Sep) |
|
1.7% |
2.0% |
|
|
|
EUR |
ECB President Draghi |
|
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
|
-35.0K |
-37.2K |
|
|
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
-0.1% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
EUR |
ECB President Draghi |
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Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction
Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)
Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction
Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction
Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction
Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt
Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23