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Barry Norman
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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD continues to climb adding 17 points as the US dollar eased most of the week. In the Asian session the greenback has gained 20 points but had little effect on the Aussie. Today’s NAB business reports both missed last month but seemed to have little effect on the currency. The AUD has been climbing steadily since Chinese exports and imports showed improvement. The pair is trading at 0.8790. The Aussie gained as the People’s Bank of China sold 20 billion yuan ($3.27 billion) of 14-day repurchase agreements at 3.4 percent. That compares with 3.5 percent in a similar auction on Oct. 9. The monetary authority last cut the rate on Sept. 18 from 3.7 percent. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

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Chinese exports rose 15.3 per cent in September from a year earlier, beating the 12 per cent expectation in a Bloomberg survey, while imports rose seven per cent, against expectations of a decline.

Imports of iron ore rose 16.5 per cent and for copper gained 10.5 per cent, suggesting China’s manufacturing base is still hungry for raw materials. The figures gave the Australian dollar a boost on Monday which continued overnight.

Despite the recent fall in the Australian dollar, it remains “higher than most conventional estimates of fundamentals would indicate,” a senior Australian central banker said on Tuesday.

That means the exchange rate is offering less assistance than it would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Guy Debelle told a Citi conference in Sydney.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

CGPI (YoY) (Sep)

3.5%

3.6%

3.9%

 

 

  JPY

 

CGPI (MoM) (Sep)

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  JPY

 

M2 Money Stock (YoY)

3.0%

2.9%

3.0%

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Bus. Confidence

5

 

7

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Business Survey

1

 

4

 

 

  NZD

 

RBNZ Offshore Holdings

63.70%

 

65.00%

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Wednesday, October 15

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change

 

-35.0K

-37.2K

 

 

  USD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

-0.1%

0.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi  

 

 

   

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

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