AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 21:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD took a dive this morning giving up 66 points as we move into the new month. The AUD has touched a long term low

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD took a dive this morning giving up 66 points as we move into the new month. The AUD has touched a long term low of 0.8682. The collapse started with a lackluster release of Chinese official manufacturing PMI which just met expectations but the sub categories of the report were disappointing. This was followed closely by Australia retail sales which fell from 0.4% to 0.1% well below forecasts.

The price of iron ore Australia’s premier export is struggling to find a base amid a prolonged slump that has seen it round out September with just three positive trading days and losses of about 12 per cent.

At the end of the latest session, iron ore was trading at $77.50 a tonne, down 0.3 per cent from its previous close of $77.70. The level represented yet another five-year low.

The Aussie fell more than a quarter of a US cent after retail trade data fell short of analysts’ expectations. ABS data showed retail sales in Australia rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.1 per cent in August to $23.32 billion. Analysts had forecast a lift of 0.4 per cent in the month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
CNY	Manufacturing PMI	51.1	51.0	51.1
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	HIA New Home Sales			-5.7%
AUD	Building Approvals		1.0%	2.5%
AUD	Trade Balance		-0.700B	1.359B
GBP	Construction PMI		63.5	64.0
EUR	Interest Rate Decision		0.05%	0.05%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		297K	293K
USD	Factory Orders (MoM)		-9.3%	10.5%