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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gained 17 points after the release of 3rd quarter inflation which climbed higher than expected but well within

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gained 17 points after the release of 3rd quarter inflation which climbed higher than expected but well within expected levels. Inflation rose to 0.5% against expectations of 0.4%.  This morning data showed that Australian CPI fell to 2.3% y/y in 3Q from 3.0% y/y in 2Q as expected. Quarterly Inflation Gain outperformed but the Australian Dollar remained little changed as inline CPI leaves RBA views intact. The Australian Dollar had another rollercoaster week against its peers as shifts in global risk sentiment swung the high-yielding currency wildly during intraday trade. Meanwhile, medium-tier regional economic data saw a lackluster response from the AUD amid well-anchored RBA policy bets.

The AUD momentarily dipped lower after the figures crossed the wires but the move would not prove lasting. Although inflation dropped from the second quarter, the as-expected result offered traders no impetus to adjust their RBA policy bets and thereby offered no meaningful direction cues for the exchange rate.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Adjusted Trade Balance

-1.07T

-0.91T

-0.91T

 

 

  JPY

 

Exports (YoY) (Aug)

6.9%

6.8%

-1.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

-958B

-777B

-949B

 

 

  AUD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q3)

0.5%

0.4%

0.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

CPI (YoY) (Q3)

2.3%

2.3%

3.0%

 

 

  AUD

 

Trimmed Mean CPI

0.4%

0.5%

0.8%

 

 

AUDUSD(15 minutes)20141022063244

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens

 

 

 

 

 

  NZD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q2)

 

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Mfg. PMI

 

50.2

50.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Mfg PMI

 

49.5

49.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI

 

55.0

55.7

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI

 

49.9

50.3

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (Sep)  

 

52.0

52.4

 

 

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgage

 

41.5K

41.6K

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

 

-0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

-0.1%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends

 

-4

-4

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

282K

264K

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

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