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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 30, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD added 8 pips in the morning session to trade at 0.8864 its highest price in several weeks. The US dollar traded

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 30, 2014 Forecast
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 30, 2014 Forecast
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 30, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD added 8 pips in the morning session to trade at 0.8864 its highest price in several weeks. The US dollar traded flat but positive sentiment seemed to surface in the markets as US equities traded higher and consumer confidence soared. New orders for US manufactured durable goods dropped 1.3 per cent in September on the back of a decline in volatile transportation orders, government data showed. National Australia Bank senior economist David de Garis said the data sparked a sell-off in the US dollar. “Reasons to sell the US dollar came from a weaker-than-expected reading from the September US durable goods orders report.

A lower exchange rate helps to make Australian exports cheaper and increases the competitiveness of locally-made goods with imported products. Commonwealth Bank economist Diana Mousina said the Australian dollar’s 10 per cent fall alone would boost economic growth up to one per cent over the next two years. “Businesses with a high export propensity or high import penetration will benefit the most,” she said. “The main winners from a lower currency, from an income sense, will be company profits and government tax revenues.” It is also one of the reasons why the CBA recently moved its forecast for a Reserve Bank interest rate hike from February to August.

The Australian dollar’s recent fall was mainly due to the US dollar getting a boost from an improving American economy and that the US Federal Reserve was considering its first interest rate hike in nine years.

Further indications on the timing of the Fed’s rate rise are expected when the central bank’s boss Janet Yellen holds a press conference early tomorrow, Australian time, after its regular policy meeting.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production

2.7%

2.2%

-1.9%

 

 

  NZD

 

Business Confidence

26.5%

 

13.4%

 

 

  CAD

 

RMPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

-1.0%

-2.2%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Funds Target Rate

 

0.25%

0.25%

 

 

AUDUSD(60 minutes)20141029052859

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

RBNZ Rate Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales

 

 

3.3%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM)

 

0.3%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

MPC Member Cunliffe  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish GDP (QoQ)

 

0.5%

0.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment

 

5K

13K

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment

 

6.7%

6.7%

 

 

  USD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

3.0%

4.6%

 

 

  USD

 

GDP Price Index (QoQ)  

 

2.0%

2.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

283K

283K

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM)

 

-0.1%

0.0%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 29 10:03 Sweden Sek 3.5bn 5.0% Dec 2020 bonds

Oct 29 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 15:30 US Usd 15bn 2Y FRNs

Oct 29 17:00 US Usd 35bn 5Y Notes

Oct 30 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 17:00 US Usd 29bn 7Y Notes

Nov 03 10:00 Norway T-bill auction

Nov 04 10:15 Austria RAGB auction

Nov 04 10:30 Belgium 3 & 6M T-bill auction (Feb & Apr 2015)

Nov 04 10:30 UK Auctions 0.5% 2050 I/L Gilt

Nov 05 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Nov 06 09:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Nov 06 10:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Nov 06 11:00 Norway Announces details of bond auction on Nov 11

Nov 07 16:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Nov 12

 

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