AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 31, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD fell 18 points to trade at 0.8778 as the US dollar gained after the FOMC decision. The Federal Reserve has ended

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 31, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD fell 18 points to trade at 0.8778 as the US dollar gained after the FOMC decision. The Federal Reserve has ended its quantitative easing program of asset purchases. The Fed says interest rates will stay near zero for a “considerable period” but the language of the statement is more “hawkish” — that is, it suggests that rates may rise earlier than originally expected by economists.

The US Federal Reserve said that “underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing” as opposed to the previous statement where it noted “there remains significant underutilization of labor resources”

The consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, rose 2.3 per cent in the year to September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. The headline CPI was expected to rise by 0.4 per cent in the December quarter for an annual rate of 2.2 per cent, according to an AAP survey of 13 economists. The ABS said seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.1 per cent in the September quarter, and was up 2.2 per cent in the 12 months to September.

The US Federal Reserve has delivered on its promise to end its $US1.66 billion ($1.88 billion) asset purchase program but will keep rates at current levels, as the country’s economy gradually improves. Despite saying for many months that it was going to end its $US15 billion in monthly purchases of treasuries and mortgaged backed securities, the move appeared to come as a surprise to investors, many of whom in recent weeks had begun to doubt that the US economy was strong enough to warrant the end of the stimulus.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Interest Rate Decision	3.50%	3.50%	3.50%
NZD	RBNZ Rate Statement
AUD	HIA New Home Sales	0.0%		3.3%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Household Spending		-4.3%	-4.7%
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY)		3.0%	3.1%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)		2.5%	2.6%
AUD	PPI (YoY) (Q3)			2.3%
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q3)			-0.1%
AUD	Private Sector Credit		0.4%	0.4%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	German Retail Sales		-1.0%	2.5%
EUR	French Consumer		-0.3%	-0.7%
EUR	Italian CPI (MoM)		-0.2%	-0.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)		0.8%	0.8%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)		0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate		11.5%	11.5%
USD	Core PCE Price Index			1.5%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Aug)		0.0%	0.0%
USD	Chicago PMI (Oct)		60.0	60.5
USD	Michigan Consumer		86.4	86.4