AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 7, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gained 20 points to trade at 0.8696 after the release of a slew of tier one data. MI inflation and jobs

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 7, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gained 20 points to trade at 0.8696 after the release of a slew of tier one data. MI inflation and jobs advertising data all printed on a positive note. The Australian dollar could push even lower in the weeks ahead as the greenback gains on bets of higher rates in the United States and the Reserve Bank looks set to change its tone on the local currency. The trigger for the drop and sharp rise in the greenback was stronger US jobs data, which reinforced a view the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program will come to an end this month, and the path for interest rates is indeed higher. It comes ahead of the Reserve Bank’s rates decision on Tuesday, which depending on the language used, could put extra pressure on the currency.

On Friday the US dollar soared as the Aussie dropped as low as 0.8643, its weakest level since July 2010. The fall came after the US Labor Department reported that there were 248,000 new jobs in September, which sent the unemployment rate down to a six year low of 5.9 per cent.

The Australian dollar was trading at around US86.68¢ early on Monday morning, recovering from Friday’s low point.

A weaker iron ore price, which dropped to $US79.60 a tonne on Friday – close to a five-year low – has also weighed on the local currency.

In addition to the RBA’s meeting on rates early this week, Thursday’s employment figures are likely to be market sensitive. The unemployment rate spiked at 6.4 per cent in July only to retrace all of that in August on the back of a jump in employment.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	MI Inflation Gauge	0.1%		0.0%
AUD	ANZ Internet Job Ads	1.1%		1.4%
AUD	ANZ Job Advertisements	0.9%		1.6%
AUD	ANZ Newspaper Job Ads	-3.5%		1.8%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Currency

JPY	Monetary Policy Statement
AUD	Cash Rate
AUD	RBA Rate Statement
JPY	BOJ Press Conference
CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves
GBP	Halifax HPI m/m
CHF	CPI m/m
CHF	Retail Sales y/y
GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m
GBP	BOE Credit Conditions Survey
CAD	Building Permits m/m
GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate
USD	JOLTS Job Openings