AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 7, 2016

The AUD/USD had an active morning with the RBA rate meeting and the release of a better than expected current account report. The RBA held rates and policy as expected after two reductions this year the bank is not expected to make any rate changes before 2017. The Aussie is up 50 points after the decision at 0.7629. Economists polled by Reuters expected the RBA to hold steady at the last meeting to be chaired by long-standing Governor Glenn Stevens, and those views have been reinforced by a spate of upbeat economic data on Monday and Tuesday.

Having already pulled the trigger on easings in May and August, the RBA is likely to wait for them percolate through the economy before deciding if yet more stimulus is needed.

Today’s RBA meeting is the last that outgoing Governor Glenn Stevens will preside over. The Australian currency is underpinned as commodity prices have regained some of their losses, and the economy in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, appears to be stabilizing. Slower U.S. jobs growth in August also helped the Aussie as it weakened the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its Sept. 20-21 meeting.

“People are really looking forward to what’s happening in the Fed decision later this month, so that’s going to be suppressing volatility a little bit,” said a senior market analyst at Think Markets in Singapore. “Today, I’m not really expecting any changes from the RBA and that might end up helping support the Australian dollar. We can trade above 76 U.S. cents today.”

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 7, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 07 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 07 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 07 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn 0% Aug 2026 Bund

Sep 08 11:00 Ireland Holds bond auction

Sep 08 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction