AUD/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast August 2015

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Published: Aug 1, 2015, 08:18 UTC

Outlook and Recommendation The AUD/USD added 16 points but remains near a 6 year low at the end of the month. The Aussie is trading at 0.7308. Monetary

Outlook and Recommendation

The AUD/USD added 16 points but remains near a 6 year low at the end of the month. The Aussie is trading at 0.7308. Monetary conditions are set to remain accommodative over the coming quarters with the benchmark interest rate set at the record low level of 2.00%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely refrain from lowering rates further given the forthcoming monetary policy normalization by the US Federal Reserve and risks stemming from relatively high household debt.

Inflation accelerated slightly in the second quarter of 2015 to 1.5% y/y, yet it still remains below the RBA’s 2-3% target. Analysts estimate price pressures will continue to intensify slightly in the second half of the year as AUD depreciation feeds through to higher import prices, closing 2015 and 2015 at 1.9% y/y and 2.2%, respectively. On the growth front, Australia’s current economic performance remains relatively soft. The economy continues to face the adverse impacts of low iron ore prices and weaker import demand from China

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events In August That You Should Be Monitoring:

Time	Cur.		Event	Forecast	Previous
Saturday, August 1, 2015
05:00	CNY		Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	50.2	50.2
Monday, August 3, 2015
05:45	CNY		HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul)		48.2
11:55	EUR		German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	51.5	51.5
12:30	GBP		Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	51.6	51.4
18:00	USD		ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	53.5	53.5
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
05:30	AUD		Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)	0.5%	0.3%
08:30	AUD		Interest Rate Decision (Aug)	2.00%	2.00%
12:30	GBP		Construction PMI (Jul)	58.4	58.1
Wednesday, August 5, 2015
02:45	NZD		Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)	0.5%	0.7%
12:30	GBP		Services PMI (Jul)	58.0	58.5
16:15	USD		ADP Nonfarm Employment	215K	237K
18:00	USD		ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	56.2	56.0
Thursday, August 6, 2015
05:30	AUD		Employment Change (Jul)	15.0K	7.3K
12:30	GBP		Manufacturing Production	0.2%	-0.6%
15:00	GBP		Interest Rate Decision (Aug)	0.50%	0.50%
Friday, August 7, 2015
16:30	USD		Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)	222K	223K
18:00	CAD		Ivey PMI (Jul)	53.0	55.9
Saturday, August 8, 2015
06:00	CNY		Trade Balance (Jul)		46.54B
Sunday, August 9, 2015
06:00	CNY		CPI (YoY) (Jul)		1.4%
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
13:00	EUR		German ZEW Economic		29.7
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
09:30	CNY		Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)		6.8%
12:30	GBP		Average Earnings Index +Bonus		3.2%
12:30	GBP		Claimant Count Change (Jul)		7.0K
Thursday, August 13, 2015
16:30	USD		Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)	0.4%	-0.1%
Friday, August 14, 2015
10:00	EUR		German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.3%
13:00	EUR		CPI (YoY) (Jul)		0.2%
16:30	USD		PPI (MoM) (Jul)	0.2%	0.4%
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
12:30	GBP		CPI (YoY) (Jul)
Thursday, August 20, 2015
12:30	GBP		Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)		-0.2%
Friday, August 21, 2015
16:30	CAD		Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
16:30	CAD		Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)		0.9%
Monday, August 31, 2015
		Holiday	United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday