AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 13-17, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD tumbled steadily all week closing down 97 points on Friday and touching a close to a near low at 0.8686. The Australian dollar has pared the majority of this week’s gains in overnight trade, losing more than US1c as investors start to fret about the possibility of recession in the eurozone.

Driving the falls was growing worries about global economic growth, with the eurozone the centre of concern. The latest bout of volatility stemmed from a revision to Germany’s growth outlook, rising IMF concerns that the eurozone could re-enter recession and German data that showed a plunge in exports.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said anything from new survey questions to a waning mining boom could have prompted its seasonal adjustment of raw data to show a record 121,000 jobs gain in August, and if applied in September, a 172,000 loss — numbers it has since discarded. Analysts speculated that budget and personnel cuts, the lack of a chief statistician and poor survey procedure could be to blame. Australia lost 29,400 jobs in mining in August from a year earlier and 58,100 in public administration and safety, bureau data released Sept. 18 showed. It added 67,500 jobs in retail, 67,200 in education and training and 63,400 in health care and social assistance, the release showed.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on July 2011

Average: 1.0292 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8641 USD October 2014

 

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