AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 – 14, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD was a big leader in the commodity currency and the Asian Pacific markets this week climbing as high at 1.0515 to close the week at 1.0488. The RBA reduced its key lending rate by 25bps this week to 3.00% as Glenn Stevens, said that AUD economy was doing well but pressure from the eurozone and the US fiscal cliff was weighing on the markets. The AUD weekly eco data was mixed and confusing with building approvals tumbling, but the prior month was revised way upward. The Current Account widened a drop but was not a market move and GDP came in slightly under expectations. It was the positive data out of China that helped support the currency.

Asian markets could share the global spotlight principally through China’s monthly data dump.  CPI inflation is expected to have risen back up to about the 2% mark partly off of year-ago base effects while consensus expects unchanged rates of expansion in retail sales and industrial production on year-ago levels.  Export growth, however, is expected to slow partly in keeping with official guidance.  New yuan loans will provide a further look at Chinese monetary policy, but it remains a very narrow credit aggregate that merits paying closer heed to aggregate financing patterns that have been solid for the year-to-date and that also include acceptances, FX loans, and bond issuance.  We’ll also have an eye on the private sector’s advance or ‘flash’ PMI reading for the manufacturing sector

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 10 10:10 Norway 

Dec 10 10:10 Slovakia 

Dec 10 15:30 UK 

Dec 10 16:30 Italy  

Dec 11 09:30 Spain 

Dec 11 10:10 Greece 

Dec 11 10:15 Austria 

Dec 11 10:30 Belgium 

Dec 11 10:30 UK 

Dec 11 18:00 US 

Dec 12 10:10 Italy  

Dec 12 10:10 Sweden 

Dec 12 10:30 Swiss 

Dec 12 16:30 US 

Dec 13 01:30 Japan 

Dec 13 09:30 Spain 

Dec 13 10:10 Italy  

Dec 13 10:30 UK 

Dec 13 16:00 US 

Dec 13 18:00 US 

Dec 14 11:00 Belgium 

Dec 14 15:30 UK