AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD continues to climb against the weak US dollar and positive outlook for the Aussie. This week the RBA will release minutes from its December meeting, when it surprised markets somewhat by cutting rates by 25bps. Chinese HSBC production PMI exceeded market expectations helping to support the Aussie and the NZD both climbing to new highs this week.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 14, 2012	1.0567	1.0531	1.0577	1.0511	0.34%
Dec 13, 2012	1.0531	1.0546	1.0563	1.0509	-0.14%
Dec 12, 2012	1.0546	1.0536	1.0586	1.0523	0.09%
Dec 11, 2012	1.0536	1.0486	1.0541	1.0462	0.48%
Dec 10, 2012	1.0486	1.0483	1.0506	1.0466	0.04%

It will be an otherwise fairly quiet week in terms of economic data, with the marquee releases being Japan’s trade numbers on Wednesday and Chinese property prices on Tuesday. Japan’s trade deficit has widened to record levels as Japan imports more energy products while its exports have been sluggish along with the rest of Asia’s due to slower Chinese growth. With that in mind, the Chinese government-produced data on the trajectory of home prices in major Chinese cities will be closely watched for hints of resurgence in Chinese real estate activity

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 10-14 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 10	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	0.1%	3.0%	1.1%
	CNY	Chinese Trade Balance	19.60B	25.70B	32.00B
Dec. 11	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	-9		-1
	USD	Trade Balance	-42.2B	-42.6B	-40.3B
	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	-4.10%		5.20%
	JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.3%	0.2%
Dec. 12	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.9%	-0.5%	0.3%
	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.652%		1.675%
	USD	Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-172.1B	-150.0B	-120.0B
Dec. 13	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
	USD	PPI (MoM)	-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.2%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	343K	370K	372K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3198K	3210K	3221K
	USD	PPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.8%	2.3%
	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	-12	-10	-3
Dec. 14	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.90		50.50
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.6%	1.8%	1.8%
	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	CPI (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.9%	2.2%
	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.9%	2.0%	2.0%
	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.1%	0.3%	-0.7%
	ARS	Argentinian CPI (MoM)	0.9%	0.7%	0.8%

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		3.3B
Dec. 18	13:30	USD	Current Account	-103.5B	-117.4B
	21:45	NZD	Current Account	-4.40B	-1.80B
Dec. 19	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.870M	0.894M
	21:45	NZD	GDP (QoQ)	0.4%	0.6%