AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD closed the week must a bit over the 1.04 number after hitting a weekly high of 1.0557 as businesses in Australia began to complain about the strength of the AUD. Global markets this week reacted to little else than the US fiscal cliff, ahead of the holiday week. There was no top tier data in Oz but strong Chinese data continued to support the Aussie. By Wednesdays traders were searching for riskier assets pushing commodity currencies to recent highs, but by Friday, market sentiment had turned complete around with the US dollar and the JPY climbing, pushing the Aussie below the 1.04 range. There is little data this week with a short holiday session so market focus will remain on the US fiscal problems but with the Congress on holiday break there is likely to be little activity until Wednesday as the US does not have a boxing day.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 21, 2012	1.0401	1.0480	1.0480	1.0395	-0.74%
Dec 20, 2012	1.0479	1.0476	1.0499	1.0462	0.03%
Dec 19, 2012	1.0476	1.0517	1.0533	1.0468	-0.39%
Dec 18, 2012	1.0517	1.0545	1.0557	1.0512	-0.27%
Dec 17, 2012	1.0545	1.0554	1.0555	1.0527	-0.09%

I would like to take this time to express my best wishes to all of my readers during this holiday season and extend the best hopes for profitable trading in 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 17-21 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-8.1	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	1.3B	25.0B	3.2B
Dec. 18	13:30	USD	Current Account	-107.5B	-103.4B	-118.1B
	21:45	NZD	Current Account	-4.42B	-4.40B	-1.80B
	23:50	JPY	Trade Balance	-0.87T	-0.81T	-0.62T
Dec. 19	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.899M	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.861M	0.873M	0.888M
	21:45	NZD	GDP (QoQ)	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
Dec. 20	04:00	JPY	Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	361K	357K	344K
	13:30	USD	GDP (QoQ)	3.1%	2.8%	2.7%
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3225K	3199K	3213K
	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	5.04M	4.87M	4.76M
	15:00	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	8.1	-3.0	-10.7
Dec. 21	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.6%	-0.2%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.7%	0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	72.9	74.7	74.5

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 27	23:30	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	-0.5%	-0.5%
	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	1.6%
	23:50	JPY	Retail Sales (YoY)	1.1%	-1.2%