AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 9-13, 2013 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD closed the week at 0.9078 falling throughout the week after opening at 0.9121. As expected, the Reserve Bank board decided to hold the cash rate steady at 2.50 per cent in December. The governor’s statement was virtually identical to the November statement with only two changes. The first of these related to the assessment of the inflation outlook where wages were added to prices as pointing to contained inflation pressures. The other change related to the assessment of recent strength across housing and equity markets and appears less significant. In the early hours of Friday, the Australian dollar fell below 90 US cents for the first time since September after official economic data showed the American economy grew at a fast pace of 3.6 per cent in the 12 months to September.

The currency then rallied to 91.76 cents a few hours later, in line with a rally in the euro after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the ECB was in no hurry to cut its interest rate.

 

Over the next few months, there will be several developments that will determine whether this strategy is successful. Most important will be the policy actions of the US Federal Reserve. If it engages in a tapering strategy for its quantitative easing program, that is likely to assist the bank’s objective of lowering the Australian dollar 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 1.0292 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.9114 USD Jun 30, 2013

Major Economic Events for the week of December 2-6 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 09 10:00 Slovakia

Dec 09 16:30 Italy

Dec 10 09:30 Spain

Dec 10 10:10 Norway

Dec 10 10:15 Austria

Dec 10 10:30 UK

Dec 10 18:00 US

Dec 11 09:30 Swiss

Dec 11 10:03 Sweden

Dec 11 10:10 Italy

Dec 11 10:30 Germany

Dec 11 18:00 US

Dec 12 10:30 UK

Dec 12 16:00 US

Dec 12 18:00 US

Dec 13 11:00 Belgium

Dec 13 15:30 UK